Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
