A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
